July 2018 General Election: Difference between revisions

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| bgcolor="#126ECC" style="width=10px;" | || [[Ian Plätschisch]] || ''unopposed''
| bgcolor="#126ECC" style="width=10px;" | || [[Ian Plätschisch]] || ''unopposed''
|}
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==Predictions and exit polling==
{| class="wikitable floatright"
|-
|+ [http://talossa.proboards.com/thread/12759/ge-predictions-2018 Average of five predictions on Wittenberg]
! colspan=2|Party !! Avg seats
|-
| bgcolor="#126ECC" style="width=10px;" | || Moderate Radicals || 75
|-
| bgcolor="#FF3300" style="width=10px;" | || Free Democrats || 60
|-
| bgcolor="#009900" style="width=10px;" | || RUMP || 56
|-
| bgcolor="#4400FF" style="width=10px;" | || MTGA || 9
|}
Prior to the vote, a customary round of predictions took place on Wittenberg; apart for a few outliers, all showed the MRPT poised to reconfirm its plurality but with a reduced lead over the other parties; and a strong showing by the FreeDems, with strong hints that they would overtake the RUMP into second place.
Lüc da Schir's exit poll data will also be shared, as per tradition, roughly half an hour before polls close.
==Results==
Results will be published upon the polls closing at 7:30 PM TST on July 1st. With IRV bringing additional complexity to the Senate races, official results for the two competitive races could be delayed.

Revision as of 18:00, 30 June 2018

July 2018 General Election
Cosa.png
October 2017 General Election 15 Jun 2018 - 1 Jul 2018

All 200 seats in the Cosa
101 seats needed for a majority
Eligible voters 182
Th mrpt.png RUMPlogo.png FreeDemsLogo2018.jpeg
Leader Ian Plätschisch Cresti M. Siervicül Miestrâ A. Schivâ
Party MRPT RUMP FreeDem
Leader since 8 Jun 2018 May 2018? May 2017
Leader's seat Senator (MM) Senator (MA) MC (FreeDem)
Last election 83 58 48
Leader Mximo Carbonel
Party MTGA
Leader's seat MC (REP)
Last election 4

Senate52el seatsup.png
Senate seats up for reelection

Outgoing Seneschal
Lüc da Schir
MRPT

The July 2018 General Election is to be held from 15 June 2018/XXXIX to 1 July 2018/XXXIX and will elect members to the 52nd Cosa and fill six Senate seats for Benito, Cézembre, Fiovă, Maricopa, Maritiimi-Maxhestic and Vuode.

Elections to the provincial assemblies of Atatürk, Benito, Cézembre and Florencia will also be conducted. No referenda to ratify amendments to the Organic Law will be conducted. The election will be the first to be administered by the newly appointed Secretary of State Glüc da Dhi.

Registered parties

Four national political parties are registered for the election:

Party Beliefs
  Free Democrats of Talossa Progressivism, liberalism, republicanism
  Moderate Radical Party of Talossa (MRPT) Centrism, constitutional monarchy, liberalism
  RUMP Monarchism, conservativism, derivativism
  Make Talossa Great Again (MTGA) Populism, republicanism

In respect to the previous elections, The Republican Party (REP) has been rebranded into the Make Talossa Great Again (MTGA) party, with no mentions of republicanism in the party's 50 words statement. The HAT, a mostly apolitical party who contested the elections to the 51st Cosa but subsequently faded out during the term by losing its only MC, has not registered again. This means that, like in the 50th Cosa elections, only four parties will appear on the ballot; if no write-in parties will be returned, this will mark a more-than-six-years low in the number of parties represented in the Cosa.

The Moderate Radicals need to gain 18 seats for a majority, the Free Democrats need 53, and the RUMP need 43. No party has won an outright majority since June 2012, although the RUMP came close in the two subsequent elections.

Senatorial races

Alongside the election of the 52nd Cosa, a record six Senate seats will be up for reelection. They are:

  • Benito, for a full 3-Cosa term
  • Cézembre, for the 2-Cosa remainder of Glüc da Dhi's term
  • Fiovă, for a full 2-Cosa term
  • Maricopa, for the 2-Cosa remainder of Beneditsch Ardpresteir's term
  • Maritiimi-Maxhestic, for a full 3-Cosa term
  • Vuode, for the 1-Cosa remainder of Eovart Grischun's term

Of those, only the Cézembrean seat is open, and only the Benitian and Vuodean races are contested.

Benito

Two-term Senator Lüc da Schir is seeking reelection to his seat, after stepping down from the leadership of the MRPT and announcing he would not serve in any Cabinet position, whatever the outcome of the general election. He is being challenged by Eiric Börnatfiglheu, a Free Democrat returning to political activity after a court-imposed hiatus following the ESB Affair. In pre-electoral talks, Börnatfiglheu has said he deeply regretted his role in the affair, and "in the interest of not mincing words", he freely admitted to having committed a crime. Da Schir also received some amount of renewed criticism regarding his role in the passage of the Catchment Area Reform Act, which was strongly opposed by Ohio Benitians who found themselves in Vuode's catchment area, including Börnatfiglheu himself and da Schir's previous opponent Iason Taiwos.

Benito Senate Election
Lüc da Schir incumbent
Eiric Börnatfiglheu

Vuode

In what is expected to be the closest race of the cycle, incumbent Trotxâ Betiñéir is seeking to be elected for a first term in his own right, after already serving twelve Clarks as a backup appointee in three separate stints. He recently sought to be elected to the seat in the 50th Cosa, when he stepped back during the election in favour of Éovart Grischun, and in the 47th Cosa, when he was unseated by the same Grischun, then of the Progressive Party - as part of a wider reversal of fortune for RUMP Senators, following the so-called Fortress Senate term, which led to Betiñéir, Brad Holmes of Atatürk and Mick Preston of M-M losing their seats in the span of two election cycles.

Opposing him is former Senator Viteu Marcianüs of the Free Democrats, seeking to regain the seat he held for two terms in 2009-2013. He already sought to capture the seat in the 50th Cosa General Elections, losing to Éovart Grischun in a race that also briefly featured his current opponent.

The winner will only serve for one Cosa, as this is a special election for the remainder of Éovart Grischun's term; due to the small demographics of Vuode and both candidates being relatively far from the ideological center, the race is expected to come down to the last vote.

Vuode Special Senate Election
Trotxâ Betiñéir incumbent
Viteu Marcianüs

Part time handicapper Lüc da Schir mentioned in the Talossan Chatzy chatroom that early on in the race his projections showed Marcianüs was sligtly more favored to win, but there was a big chance of the candidates tying. This would extraordinarily give notable weight to IRV/RCV second preferences, normally not important in two-candidate races, and make it so that the final outcome could be determined by whichever voter would fill (or forget to fill) the 2nd-5th lines on the Senate ballot.

Cézembre

The Cézembrean race is made necessary by Senator Glüc da Dhi, who was serving a third term as Senator, resigning to accept an appointment as Secretary of State. This thus marks the third Cézembrean Senate election in four election cycles, although the central one was not contested due to the absence of candidates other than da Dhi.

Former PP Senator and current MRPT Sénéchal Alèxandreu Soleighlfred is the only candidate; however the race will nevertheless be disputed, as it will be conducted by the National Chancery rather than under Cézembrean law.

Cézembre Special Senate Election
Alèxandreu Soleighlfred unopposed

Fiovă

Mençei dal Senäts Gödafrïeu Válcadác'h is running for a second term; no opponent has declared to be running against him. No Fiovăn race has been contested since the 46th Cosa General Elections, a contest that was criticised for the failure of the provincial Secretary of State to duly inform the voters about the contest.

Fiovă Senate Election
Gödafrïeu Válcadác'h unopposed

Maricopa

In Maricopa, the first election conducted with Instant Runoff Vote saw RUMP candidate Justice Béneditsch Ardpresteir winning against Moderate Radical Txoteu Davinescu. The open seat was vacated by Munditenens Tresplet's decision to run for the Cosa instead.

Maricopa Special Senate Election
Cresti M. Siervicül unopposed

Maritiimi-Maxhestic

The most recent member of the Senate, Ian Plätschisch, is running for a first term of his own, after being appointed to complete the lone Clark left in Magniloqueu da Lhiun's term. He previously sat in the Cosa as the leader of the Moderate Radical caucus, the Party Whip. No opponent has declared, and the election will be conducted by the Maritiimi-Maxhestic government by public ballot.

Maritiimi-Maxhestic Senate Election
Ian Plätschisch unopposed

Predictions and exit polling

Average of five predictions on Wittenberg
Party Avg seats
Moderate Radicals 75
Free Democrats 60
RUMP 56
MTGA 9

Prior to the vote, a customary round of predictions took place on Wittenberg; apart for a few outliers, all showed the MRPT poised to reconfirm its plurality but with a reduced lead over the other parties; and a strong showing by the FreeDems, with strong hints that they would overtake the RUMP into second place.

Lüc da Schir's exit poll data will also be shared, as per tradition, roughly half an hour before polls close.

Results

Results will be published upon the polls closing at 7:30 PM TST on July 1st. With IRV bringing additional complexity to the Senate races, official results for the two competitive races could be delayed.